Updated 9.18, 9.46 - all selections online
KAAFY ran very well considering he became involved in a speed duel at Chelmsford last time in first-time blinkers, and although he’s again unlikely to have his own way up front at Catterick (2.20), he’s worth the chance to confirm that apparent improvement.
Lit up by the headgear, he disputed the lead at an unsustainable pace at Chelmsford – the time to the 3f pole was around 0.8 seconds faster than that in the 0-95 handicap which preceded it, or nearly five lengths on the official BHA scale.
Kaafy saw off his fellow front runner (who started favourite) but had nothing left in the final furlong and faded into fourth.
He’ll need the headgear to work for a second time, and there are other front-runners in opposition (notably Bumbledom, who returns to the scene of his previous win and has cheek-pieces refitted), but I thought he shaped as if ahead of his mark at Chelmsford, and given he’s been dropped 2lb for that run, he looks worth chancing.
In the 8.00 at Wolverhampton, market leaders MIAELLA and Mr Kodi ran in different races on the same card last time, and given their respective time figures and sectionals, I think the former might be the one to be on.
Miaella raced over a mile and went with plenty of zest from the front, and she kicked a couple of lengths clear in the straight before a couple of rivals caught her close to the finish. Mr Kodi’s win came in a very slow time and featured a bunch finish, and with the exception of the fast-finishing Mick Appleby debutant who chased him home, those that finished close up behind him look extremely moderate.
This sort of trip looks ideal for Miaella and a repeat of her Chelmsford effort should see her go close.
Hugh's Best Bets (scale 1-5 points):
1pt win KAAFY (10-1 bet365, 9-1 William Hill, 8-1 general, 15-2 Betfair Sportsbook, Coral, Paddy Power)
1pt win MIAELLA (9-2 bet365, William Hill, 4-1 general, 15-4 Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
Hugh gives a daily indication of when the column will be published via Twitter.com (username is HughRacing). You can also listen to a Final Furlong Podcast special in which Hugh explains the methodology behind the column here.
You can view his monthly figures by clicking the links below:
2019 results ROI 1.16 +101.38pts
2018 results ROI 1.55 +345pts
2017 results ROI 1.46 +282pts
2016 results ROI 1.44 +281pts
2015 results ROI 1.34 +207pts
2014 results ROI 1.32 +199.79pts
2013 results ROI 1.32 +210pts
2012 results ROI 1.31 +222.65pts
2011 results ROI 1.28 +302.64 pts
2010 results ROI 1.23 +324.79 pts
2009 results ROI 1.26 +500.36 pts